Obi Toppin had an incredible sophomore season at Dayton, winning the Wooden and Naismith awards as the best player in the country during this highly unusual 2019-20 NCAA season. He put up great numbers: 20 / 8 / 2 with outrageous shooting splits of 63% / 39% / 70%. If that wasn't enough, he lead tiny Dayton to a 29-2 record and the #3 ranking in the country while posting highlight dunk after highlight dunk.
After such an amazing year, it's no surprise that Toppin began to climb draft boards and even enter the discussion for the #1 overall pick. Comps of Amar'e Stoudamire and Antonio McDyess became commonplace. Our model, unfortunately, is not quite as optimistic:
- Our model is most bullish on Toppin in terms of his offensive impact, grading him as a 75/100. He stood out especially for his Offensive BPM of 7.4 (91st percentile for bigs) and his passing (2.5 assists per 36, 90th percentile for bigs). His high Offensive BPM especially makes sense as the type of player that he is - lob threat, floor spacer, efficient scorer - should be a net positive for any offense
- Despite a 40/100 grade as a shooter in our model that's mediocre upon first glance, his shooting grade is in the 80th percentile for bigs across our database. He'll be a respectable stretch big immediately.
- As mentioned, he was an extremely efficient scorer, posting a 69% true shooting percentage (95th percentile for bigs)
- Inverse to his sneaky good shooting grade, his rebounding grade was sneaky bad. He graded as a 61/100, but that score only put him in the 17th percentile for bigs as a rebounder
- Similarly, the concerns about him defensively are real. Again, he had a seemingly solid grade of 67/100, but that number only put him in the 47th percentile for bigs as a defender. He simply wasn't especially impressive as a rim protector or a disruptor, notching 1.4 blocks and 1.1 steals per 36.
- He's old, especially for a sophomore. He would've been 22.6 as of the draft it hadn't been postponed. This negatively impacted all of his grades in our model
- He played mediocre competition. His Strength of Schedule of 3.7 is in the 12th percentile of all prospects. This also deflated his grades with us
On the surface, Toppin is an electrifying prospect. Monster dunks, three point range, and efficient scoring sounds like a future superstar. Unfortunately, once his performance is put into proper context cracks begin to emerge. He will likely be an exciting piece on offense right away, especially as a screener for a pick and roll heavy team, but his limitations as a defender and rebounder will prevent him from ever becoming a franchise cornerstone.
- Our Comp: Kyle Kuzma
- Suggested Draft Range: Mid First Round
- Immediate Impact: Moderate (good highlights, bad defense)
- Long Term Potential: Moderate (solid stretch big, 14 PPG / 6 RPG)