Tyrese Maxey entered Kentucky as a consensus top ten recruit and had nice season in his one year in Lexington, garnering 2nd Team All-SEC honors and averaging 14.0 PPG / 4.3 RPG / 3.2 APG. He's currently forecasted to be drafted somewhere around the late lottery to mid first round range, with experts seeing elements of NBA stalwarts like Kyle Lowry, Ben Gordon, and Avery Bradley.
Our model and frankly most projection systems struggle to predict how well Kentucky players are going to do at the next level because of the overabundance of talent the Wildcats have year after year, which creates smaller roles for prospects that would be alpha dogs at most other programs. Despite this volatility, we're still confident that Maxey is the most overrated prospect in this year's draft:
- Maxey is a good free throw shooter, hitting 83%. This is the harbinger of any hope that he'll become a productive NBA player, in that it's a leading indicator that he can become adequate as a shooter.
- He's a decent defender for a guard. His Defensive DPM was a solid 2.4 (68th percentile for guards), although you'd want more than 0.9 steals per 36 (9th percentile for guards) from him.
- He's also a decent rebounder for a guard, pulling down 4.5 per 36 (57th percentile for guards)
- He projects as a respectable scorer, grading out at 58/100 (54th percentile for guards)
- The biggest concern about Maxey is that he's a bad shooter. He graded out at 41/100, which is only in the 24th percentile amongst guards. He only made an abysmal 29% of his threes (15th percentile for guards) on a modest 3.8 attempts per 36 (24th percentile for guards).
- Directly related to this poor shooting, Maxey also graded at a disappointing 11/100 for his Offensive Impact. He dished 3.3 assists per 36 (20th percentile for guards) and registered a 3.1 Offensive BPM (7th percentile for guards).
Maxey has pedigree and is known as a high character prospect, so there's certainly a chance he has a long, productive NBA career. I struggle to see what the niche is that he can carve out in the league unless he dramatically improves as a shooter. Right now he's either a point guard with mediocre vision who clogs the paint, or a undersized wing slasher... who still clogs the paint. Unfortunately I don't see him becoming much more than that.
- Our Comp: Shannon Brown
- Suggested Draft Range: Second Round
- Immediate Impact: Low (poor shooter, low efficiency scorer)
- Long Term Potential: Moderate (off-ball scorer, 12 PPG / 4 RPG / 3 APG)